Stability in a Multipolar International System: A Guide to Survival in an Increasingly Entropic World
A guest lecture by Jozef Hrabina from GeoPoLytics.
Abstract: As the number of actors capable of influencing global affairs increases, so do conflicts. From Thucydides' era, we understand that dynamics between rising and established powers often lead to great power conflicts. This argument is synthesized by schools of thought such as Power Transition Theory and Hegemonic Stability Theory, as represented by Robert Gilpin in his masterpiece War and Change in World Politics. In international systems with three or more centers of power, shifts in the balance of power are constant, and the struggle for dominance seems intrinsic to great power interactions. Alliances tend to be fluid rather than rigid, varying based on the regional interests of major players. Flexibility is key to great power success, allowing states to balance their peer competitors. Balancing, in turn, keeps the system in check and prevents individual actors from dominating, as history teaches that when one actor becomes too powerful, it requires a coalition of the entire system to counterbalance them. This often leads to widespread conflict, as seen in the Napoleonic Wars and World Wars I and II. This lecture offers lessons on the best and worst practices for surviving in a multipolar world by adopting appropriate strategies and engaging in initiatives like order building or ad-hoc coalition making.
